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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 32 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 28 games
68%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 28 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Rein · 20 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 18 games
44%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 46 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 41 game
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 39 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 38 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 28 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
668 picks · 799 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 537 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 417 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
458 picks · 320 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1123 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 603 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 797 bans
51%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
385 picks · 1014 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:17
1w Team 55%Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingv1olent-
47% · 200 games46% · 273 games
MuertaKami
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
48% · 329 games49% · 363 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
47% · 129 games56% · 305 games
LeshracWorick
Leshrac
Warlock
WarlockRein
44% · 322 games53% · 367 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
43% · 433 games69% · 105 games
Treant ProtectorMoOz
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct27:9
1w Team 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
53% · 79 games48% · 60 games
RazorKami
Razor
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
54% · 159 games50% · 118 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
51% · 153 games48% · 121 game
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
43% · 64 games47% · 69 games
EnchantressMoOz
Enchantress
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
54% · 77 games49% · 164 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed23:20
1w Team 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
51% · 150 games48% · 246 games
GyrocopterKami
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSquad1x
47% · 438 games40% · 294 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
55% · 446 games55% · 194 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
57% · 63 games58% · 51 game
RubickMoOz
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
43% · 100 games51% · 412 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3