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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 32 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
65%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 14 games
50%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Max · 11 games
45%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 22 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenix
b1kA · 15 games
47%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
21%
Lina
Linasignature
Stojkov · 14 games
71%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
57%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
376 picks · 602 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
322 picks · 207 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
312 picks · 557 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
252 picks · 481 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 365 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
221 picks · 134 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
213 picks · 730 bans
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 269 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:28
IVY 55%Water Rune Enjoyers 45%
The model gave 55% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 59:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderMo13ei
53% · 101 game48% · 96 games
Wraith KingPalantimos
Wraith King
Doom
DoomOwnedMe
50% · 139 games53% · 259 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Razor
Razorpio65
50% · 212 games52% · 217 games
Death ProphetBliNcc
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickQupe
45% · 158 games56% · 5 games
Rikiy0nd
Riki
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterjmn-
little data47% · 33 games
SilencerMary_y
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct43:27
IVY 56%Water Rune Enjoyers 44%
The model gave 56% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracpio65
54% · 83 games48% · 123 games
DoomBliNcc
Doom
Puck
PuckMo13ei
51% · 218 games45% · 199 games
RazorPalantimos
Razor
Visage
VisageOwnedMe
63% · 88 games52% · 11 games
Rikiy0nd
Riki
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenQupe
45% · 64 games49% · 242 games
SnapfireMary_y
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskjmn-
49% · 122 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 61%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2