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BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Cringe Crewloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cringe Crew

Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Ark · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Sunlight · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
FrancisLee · 3 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
The Warden · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
The Warden · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
The Warden · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Sunlight · 2 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Sunlight · 2 games
50%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 26 games
58%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 10 games
10%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
dnm · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dnm · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
378 picks · 602 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
316 picks · 560 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 204 bans
49%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
246 picks · 476 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
238 picks · 342 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
221 picks · 722 bans
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
210 picks · 253 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
207 picks · 117 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Cringe Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:30
Cringe Crew 38%5RATFORCESTAFF 62%
The model gave 62% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingred2
43% · 80 games52% · 67 games
BroodmotherSpeeed
Broodmother
Doom
DoomSunlight
57% · 49 games47% · 70 games
Drow Rangerdnm
Drow Ranger
Pudge
PudgeArk
49% · 39 games57% · 159 games
MiranaMoOz
Mirana
Snapfire
SnapfireFrancisLee
50% · 146 games47% · 92 games
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
Crystal Maiden
Undying
UndyingThe Warden
50% · 74 games
Game 2prediction correct10:30
Cringe Crew 34%5RATFORCESTAFF 66%
The model gave 66% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 22:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingred2
45% · 79 games54% · 106 games
DoomSpeeed
Doom
Wraith King
Wraith KingArk
48% · 108 games52% · 56 games
Lifestealerdnm
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterSunlight
51% · 69 games60% · 118 games
MiranaMoOz
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFrancisLee
51% · 49 games47% · 86 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenThe Warden
41% · 61 game
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 72%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2