BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPPurple Paradoxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
db- · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 9 games
Marssignature
woMy · 9 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Marcioften banned
woMy · 8 games
Purple Paradox
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 5 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
seimei · 1 game
Slardar
seimei · 1 game
Spirit Breaker
seimei · 1 game
Tusk
seimei · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
377 picks · 600 bans
Undying
318 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 202 bans
Primal Beast
246 picks · 476 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 339 bans
Enigma
221 picks · 721 bans
Shadow Fiend
208 picks · 253 bans
Tusk
207 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Purple Paradox
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:7
Army Geniuses 53%Purple Paradox 47%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 23:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlinginYourdreaM
Death Prophetseimei
TinyYowe
Marsdb-
Enchantresscml
MiranaVarizh
Game 2prediction correct34:25
Army Geniuses 52%Purple Paradox 48%
The model gave 52% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendinYourdreaM
Night Stalkerseimei
TinyYowe
Beastmasterdb-
Disruptorcml
LichVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 51%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2