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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 33 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 21 game
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Timado · 17 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 17 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Hellscream · 15 games
60%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 42 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 39 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 38 games
47%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 28 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
666 picks · 799 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 538 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 415 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
458 picks · 320 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 1123 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 604 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 795 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 1014 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% HULIGANI
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total54% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:29
Virtus.pro 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
55% · 190 games47% · 418 games
Beastmasterssnovv1
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckAinkrad
51% · 437 games49% · 426 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
46% · 104 games52% · 291 game
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
50% · 295 games59% · 109 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroFly
45% · 666 games47% · 448 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed19:7
Virtus.pro 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
49% · 74 games56% · 5 games
Meepossnovv1
Meepo
Leshrac
LeshracAinkrad
46% · 146 games51% · 107 games
Keeper of the LightMirage
Keeper of the Light
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
50% · 83 games55% · 220 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Rubick
RubickHellscream
50% · 63 games53% · 278 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroFly
50% · 456 games45% · 212 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct10:31
Virtus.pro 44%HULIGANI 56%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
44% · 102 games46% · 196 games
Ursassnovv1
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAinkrad
54% · 363 games47% · 203 games
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
51% · 251 game57% · 225 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
49% · 291 game55% · 236 games
Shadow DemonRESPECT
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubickHellscream
48% · 84 games50% · 231 game
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 54%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3