BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Mirana
Shanks · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bob · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 11 games
Pudgesignature
Palos · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Palos · 9 games
Geek Fam
Marssignature
eleven · 15 games
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 14 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 13 games
Tiny
Sancity · 12 games
Rubick
Hishge · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 9 games
Snapfire
Hishge · 8 games
Visageoften banned
eleven · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 590 bans
Undying
324 picks · 569 bans
Tiny
310 picks · 203 bans
Primal Beast
242 picks · 472 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 336 bans
Enigma
224 picks · 726 bans
Shadow Fiend
207 picks · 249 bans
Death Prophet
206 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:47
Execration 61%Geek Fam 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenPalos
JuggernautSkem
BatriderBob
PangolierForce
SlardarTino-
LionNARMAN
TinyShanks
SilencerRoddgeee
Game 2prediction missed21:52
Execration 59%Geek Fam 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidPalos
GyrocopterSkem
LeshracBob
UndyingForce
EnigmaTino-
HoodwinkNARMAN
TinyShanks
MiranaRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 66%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2