?
arrow_backBack to match
PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Power Rangersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 42 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 38 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 38 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 28 games
50%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 24 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Alberkaaa · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
671 picks · 810 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 546 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 414 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
462 picks · 322 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1131 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 607 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 667 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
387 picks · 1018 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:39
HULIGANI 52%Power Rangers 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meepossnovv1
67% · 5 games47% · 88 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
49% · 104 games55% · 161 game
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
50% · 228 games58% · 65 games
PudgeAlberkaaa
Pudge
Venomancer
VenomancerRESPECT
30% · 34 games55% · 22 games
IoImmersion
Io
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
55% · 191 game47% · 226 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct33:15
HULIGANI 53%Power Rangers 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirage
45% · 333 games49% · 255 games
BeastmasterTA2000
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey Kingssnovv1
61% · 184 games41% · 241 game
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingCorrupted
56% · 233 games44% · 59 games
Huskarnicky`cool
Huskar
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
51% · 186 games46% · 257 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
56% · 80 games51% · 204 games
Shadow DemonImmersion
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 58%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2