November Untitled Tournament · BO1
result vs predictionC&canceL & Coloss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
L&LebroN & Cowin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
canceL & Co
No games played over 6 months.
LebroN & Co
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
368 picks · 579 bans
Undying
326 picks · 570 bans
Tiny
317 picks · 209 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 331 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 464 bans
Enigma
226 picks · 731 bans
Shadow Fiend
208 picks · 245 bans
Death Prophet
207 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% canceL & Co
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% canceL & Co
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
canceL & Co 53%LebroN & Co 47%
The model gave 53% on canceL & Co — the game was taken by LebroN & Co.
Model check result
Model favoritecanceL & Co · 53%
Series resultLebroN & Co 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1