BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Mirana
Shanks · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 11 games
Pudgesignature
Palos · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Palos · 9 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
369 picks · 578 bans
Undying
327 picks · 570 bans
Tiny
320 picks · 212 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 331 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 464 bans
Enigma
228 picks · 734 bans
Shadow Fiend
209 picks · 245 bans
Death Prophet
207 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 22%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:25
Execration 61%Lilgun 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 44:22.
Game 2prediction correct37:19
Execration 61%Lilgun 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2