BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs predictionCCCringe Crewwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBLucky Birdloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cringe Crew
Pudgeoften banned
Ark · 3 games
Disruptor
The Warden · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Sunlight · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
The Warden · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Sunlight · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sooths · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Sunlight · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Sooths · 1 game
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 8 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Tusksignature
FrancisLee · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 5 games
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
364 picks · 571 bans
Undying
332 picks · 572 bans
Tiny
330 picks · 223 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 332 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 458 bans
Enigma
236 picks · 748 bans
Death Prophet
209 picks · 312 bans
Tusk
208 picks · 101 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Cringe Crew
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
Cringe Crew 47%Lucky Bird 53%
The model gave 53% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Cringe Crew in 28:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSooths
UrsaRises
PudgeArk
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
DazzleSunlight
HoodwinkWij
TuskFrancisLee
UndyingYadomi
MiranaThe Warden
Game 2prediction correct21:46
Cringe Crew 46%Lucky Bird 54%
The model gave 54% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSooths
LifestealerRises
SvenArk
Queen of PainBlackSoul
LinaSunlight
DisruptorYadomi
ClockwerkFrancisLee
MarciWij
UndyingThe Warden
Game 3prediction missed32:17
Cringe Crew 45%Lucky Bird 55%
The model gave 55% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Cringe Crew in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSooths
Storm SpiritBlackSoul
MedusaArk
UrsaRises
TidehunterSunlight
SnapfireYadomi
MiranaFrancisLee
TuskWij
UndyingThe Warden
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 57%
Series resultCringe Crew 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3