BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runeswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brasilloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Runes
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Berna · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Berna · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 1 game
Elder Titan
Nuages · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Lion
Jupiter · 1 game
Team Brasil
Marcioften banned
Kingrd · 2 games
Axe
Tavo · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Tavo · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Tavo · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Mirana
KJ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
370 picks · 584 bans
Tiny
340 picks · 234 bans
Undying
332 picks · 570 bans
Pangolier
246 picks · 332 bans
Enigma
242 picks · 756 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 452 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 104 bans
Death Prophet
213 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Team Brasil
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Brasil
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:16
No Runes 47%Team Brasil 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Brasil — the game was taken by No Runes in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusamini-`
Monkey KingCostabile
InvokerMr.Jeans
LeshracFCR
TidehunterHyko
BeastmasterTavo
RubickJupiter
MiranaKJ
Treant ProtectorNuages
TinyKingrd
Game 2prediction missed27:10
No Runes 49%Team Brasil 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Brasil — the game was taken by No Runes in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenmini-`
MorphlingCostabile
KunkkaMr.Jeans
TuskFCR
Outworld DestroyerHyko
VisageTavo
MiranaJupiter
MarciKingrd
Treant ProtectorNuages
AbaddonKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Brasil · 54%
Series resultNo Runes 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2