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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 23 games
39%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 18 games
44%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 17 games
65%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windranger
shiro · 30 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
XinQ · 15 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 14 games
36%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xm · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xm · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 361 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 226 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
357 picks · 645 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
332 picks · 340 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
315 picks · 230 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
312 picks · 314 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 433 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
292 picks · 388 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:21
1w Team 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
54% · 140 games55% · 166 games
Monkey Kingshiro
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
46% · 253 games47% · 99 games
Earth SpiritXm
Earth Spirit
Axe
Axe33
47% · 159 games53% · 214 games
LargoFaith_bian
Largo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
52% · 137 games48% · 231 game
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
51% · 290 games47% · 269 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct26:8
1w Team 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPure~
48% · 49 games56% · 79 games
Naga Sirenshiro
Naga Siren
Lycan
Lycan33
48% · 89 games50% · 153 games
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
54% · 112 games46% · 75 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
54% · 105 games42% · 122 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Bane
BaneWhitemon
54% · 169 games46% · 95 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2