Lucky Bird vs Cringe Crew — prediction BPSS1А · Dota 2

BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3

result vs prediction

LBLucky Birdloss 0:2

series probability

64%36%

probability at match start · final 0:2

CCCringe Crewwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lucky Bird

Pucksignature

BlackSoul · 11 games

73%

Templar Assassinoften banned

Rises · 8 games

50%

Ember Spiritoften banned

BlackSoul · 6 games

33%

Tiny

FrancisLee · 6 games

50%

Bloodseekeroften banned

Rises · 5 games

20%

Tusk

FrancisLee · 5 games

60%

Zeusoften banned

FrancisLee · 5 games

60%

Clockwerk

FrancisLee · 4 games

50%

Cringe Crew

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Marci

383 picks · 585 bans

55%

Tiny

343 picks · 254 bans

51%

Undying

329 picks · 563 bans

54%

Enigma

247 picks · 766 bans

57%

Pangolier

241 picks · 330 bans

54%

Primal Beast

236 picks · 441 bans

54%

Death Prophet

219 picks · 330 bans

45%

Tusk

212 picks · 99 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% Lucky Bird

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total64% Lucky Bird

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed13:35

Lucky Bird 57%Cringe Crew 43%

The model gave 57% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Cringe Crew in 45:11.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo