Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO5
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 3:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 3:1
X3loss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Tinysignature
velheor · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
394 picks · 596 bans
Tiny
353 picks · 265 bans
Undying
327 picks · 559 bans
Enigma
248 picks · 773 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 338 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 435 bans
Death Prophet
223 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
212 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% X3
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:27
Monaspa 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on Monaspa — the game was taken by X3 in 37:21.
Game 2prediction missed40:34
Monaspa 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on Monaspa — the game was taken by X3 in 45:09.
Game 3prediction missed45:24
Monaspa 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on Monaspa — the game was taken by X3 in 46:45.
Game 4prediction missed29:32
Monaspa 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on Monaspa — the game was taken by X3 in 44:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 51%
Series resultMonaspa 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 4