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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
velheor · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
59%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
53%
Zeus
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
56%

One Move

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 13 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Marci
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
395 picks · 599 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
355 picks · 266 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 557 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
249 picks · 774 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
239 picks · 339 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
235 picks · 435 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
223 picks · 339 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
210 picks · 100 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:19
X3 39%One Move 61%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
56% · 58 games50% · 97 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Lina
LinaNattyNarwhal
44% · 201 game49% · 172 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastShergarat
53% · 89 games50% · 59 games
LycanAfterLife
Lycan
Silencer
Silencerdark
48% · 86 games46% · 97 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Tusk
Tuskvelheor
51% · 148 games55% · 157 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Game 2prediction missed31:47
X3 40%One Move 60%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by X3 in 52:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
46% · 176 games44% · 250 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanShergarat
54% · 96 games52% · 130 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
47% · 348 games50% · 84 games
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
Earthshakervelheor
52% · 92 games47% · 301 game
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidendark
57% · 122 games54% · 69 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed31:13
X3 39%One Move 61%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by X3 in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Snipernesfeer
41% · 48 games47% · 121 game
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
51% · 214 games51% · 76 games
LycanAfterLife
Lycan
Lina
LinaNattyNarwhal
46% · 151 game50% · 21 game
HuskarMalr1ne
Huskar
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidendark
58% · 100 games53% · 327 games
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Tusk
Tuskvelheor
55% · 185 games45% · 153 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 72%
Series resultX3 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3