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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ancient Tribe

Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Limmp · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Limmp · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Charlie · 5 games
40%

One Move

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
397 picks · 597 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
355 picks · 267 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 556 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
249 picks · 773 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
237 picks · 340 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
231 picks · 435 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
226 picks · 340 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
208 picks · 100 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:14
Ancient Tribe 36%One Move 64%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenShad
68% · 53 games42% · 96 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
56% · 197 games48% · 192 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
48% · 127 games39% · 66 games
BroodmotherAfterLife
Broodmother
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAlexxo
58% · 95 games50% · 34 games
DazzlePanto
Dazzle
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
54% · 79 games41% · 163 games
Snapfirexsvampire
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct26:41
Ancient Tribe 36%One Move 64%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerShad
48% · 40 games58% · 40 games
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Troll Warlord
Lina
LinaMirage
49% · 170 games37% · 65 games
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Broodmother
BroodmotherDavai
51% · 67 games52% · 147 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAlexxo
54% · 102 games46% · 40 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
56% · 94 games48% · 181 game
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct21:45
Ancient Tribe 38%One Move 62%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
49% · 163 games49% · 115 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Viper
ViperDavai
52% · 153 games50% · 75 games
VisageAfterLife
Visage
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMirage
57% · 71 game55% · 48 games
Windrangermellojul
Windranger
Tusk
TuskAlexxo
50% · 153 games50% · 319 games
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Silencer
SilencerLeBronDota
46% · 54 games41% · 37 games
LichPanto
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 77%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3