Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribewin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NVNo Visionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ancient Tribe
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
Tiny
Limmp · 10 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
Dragon Knight
Limmp · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Charlie · 5 games
No Vision
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
Tusk
jAMES · 2 games
Zeusoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Clockwerk
jAMES · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
394 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 265 bans
Undying
326 picks · 554 bans
Enigma
249 picks · 771 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 341 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 433 bans
Death Prophet
226 picks · 340 bans
Tusk
207 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% No Vision
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:19
Ancient Tribe 57%No Vision 43%
The model gave 57% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShad
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Storm SpiritMirage
MarcijAMES
BrewmasterDavai
Primal BeastAlexxo
MiranaLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct23:4
Ancient Tribe 53%No Vision 47%
The model gave 53% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 15:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeShad
ZeusChira JUNIOR
LinaMirage
MarcijAMES
EnigmaDavai
TuskAlexxo
SilencerLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 59%
Series resultAncient Tribe 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2