Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
Chensignature
Panto · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
Tiny
sayuw · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 11 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 31 game
Miranasignature
Qupe · 18 games
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 14 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Max · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
394 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 265 bans
Undying
326 picks · 554 bans
Enigma
249 picks · 771 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 341 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 433 bans
Death Prophet
226 picks · 340 bans
Tusk
207 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 28%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:22
One Move 71%IVY 29%
The model gave 71% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSmiling Knight
BristlebackMax
Tinkermellojul
Death ProphetMo13ei
BroodmotherAfterLife
Miranajmn-
Snapfirexsvampire
TinyQupe
Primal BeastPanto
Game 2prediction correct23:15
One Move 71%IVY 29%
The model gave 71% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Leshracmellojul
LifestealerMax
VisageAfterLife
MiranaQupe
Marcixsvampire
Crystal Maidenjmn-
SilencerPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 85%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2