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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorryloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Water Rune Enjoyerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 35 games
69%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Worick · 25 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 21 game
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
LastHero- · 18 games
61%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Kami · 18 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
y0nd · 17 games
65%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
b1kA · 22 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
59%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Mary_y · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
53%
Visage
Visagesignature
BliNcc · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
21%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
394 picks · 602 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 264 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
325 picks · 552 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
247 picks · 770 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
234 picks · 342 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
227 picks · 342 bans
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
225 picks · 430 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
205 picks · 720 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:49
No Sorry 64%Water Rune Enjoyers 36%
The model gave 64% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDinozavrik
51% · 55 games52% · 175 games
WeaverPalantimos
Weaver
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
50% · 94 games49% · 252 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
51% · 158 games45% · 56 games
BroodmotherBliNcc
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyArrOw
51% · 261 game49% · 33 games
Techiesy0nd
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
42% · 58 games57% · 110 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct38:19
No Sorry 62%Water Rune Enjoyers 38%
The model gave 62% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerDinozavrik
48% · 31 game50% · 442 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Visage
VisageCloud
57% · 121 game50% · 213 games
WeaverPalantimos
Weaver
Tusk
TuskWorick
53% · 187 games43% · 123 games
TimbersawBliNcc
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickArrOw
47% · 240 games49% · 29 games
Techiesy0nd
Techies
Marci
MarciBLACKARXANGEL
52% · 343 games50% · 115 games
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed15:36
No Sorry 63%Water Rune Enjoyers 37%
The model gave 63% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperDinozavrik
53% · 47 games57% · 48 games
LifestealerPalantimos
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
51% · 153 games55% · 87 games
VisageBliNcc
Visage
Sand King
Sand KingCloud
48% · 213 games45% · 197 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickArrOw
48% · 182 games53% · 350 games
Tinyy0nd
Tiny
Undying
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
43% · 187 games51% · 100 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 73%
Series resultWater Rune Enjoyers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3