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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorryloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 35 games
69%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Worick · 25 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 21 game
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
LastHero- · 18 games
61%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Kami · 18 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
y0nd · 17 games
65%

Ancient Tribe

Puck
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Limmp · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
s4 · 6 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Handsken · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
393 picks · 601 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 266 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
325 picks · 549 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
247 picks · 769 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
234 picks · 340 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
227 picks · 346 bans
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
223 picks · 422 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
204 picks · 725 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:50
No Sorry 58%Ancient Tribe 42%
The model gave 58% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherCloud
50% · 45 games49% · 141 game
BloodseekerStoneBank
Bloodseeker
Monkey King
Monkey Kinglayme
52% · 188 games48% · 138 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
46% · 267 games51% · 212 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanArrOw
52% · 105 games53% · 93 games
Primal BeastAlexxo
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciBLACKARXANGEL
51% · 167 games49% · 188 games
Hoodwinkillusion
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed15:39
No Sorry 57%Ancient Tribe 43%
The model gave 57% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgelayme
47% · 82 games51% · 63 games
SvenStoneBank
Sven
Lycan
LycanCloud
54% · 43 games53% · 87 games
Primal BeastMirage
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskWorick
55% · 91 game54% · 135 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Marci
MarciArrOw
46% · 232 games45% · 114 games
Earthshakerillusion
Earthshaker
Silencer
SilencerBLACKARXANGEL
49% · 53 games47% · 102 games
Crystal MaidenAlexxo
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 65%
Series resultAncient Tribe 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2