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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
velheor · 15 games
67%

Ancient Tribe

Puck
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Limmp · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 8 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
s4 · 6 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Handsken · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
391 picks · 602 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
361 picks · 268 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
324 picks · 549 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 771 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
236 picks · 338 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
228 picks · 353 bans
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
222 picks · 421 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
205 picks · 729 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
X3 53%Ancient Tribe 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3.
Game 2prediction correct
X3 53%Ancient Tribe 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 53%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2