Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
YNTwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 31 game
Timbersawsignature
Max · 16 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 14 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Lowskill · 11 games
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
391 picks · 595 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 262 bans
Undying
324 picks · 545 bans
Enigma
248 picks · 766 bans
Death Prophet
236 picks · 357 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 337 bans
Primal Beast
219 picks · 414 bans
Batrider
207 picks · 736 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:27
IVY 43%YNT 57%
The model gave 57% on YNT — the game was taken by IVY in 38:00.
Game 2prediction correct28:40
IVY 43%YNT 57%
The model gave 57% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 41:09.
Game 3prediction correct14:48
IVY 43%YNT 57%
The model gave 57% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 32:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 57%
Series resultYNT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3