Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs predictionNVNo Visionwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Vision
Linaoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
Snapfire
jAMES · 1 game
Tiny
jAMES · 1 game
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 31 game
Timbersawsignature
Max · 16 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Lowskill · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
391 picks · 595 bans
Tiny
365 picks · 267 bans
Undying
323 picks · 545 bans
Enigma
248 picks · 766 bans
Death Prophet
236 picks · 359 bans
Pangolier
233 picks · 335 bans
Primal Beast
218 picks · 411 bans
Batrider
210 picks · 738 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 30%
Hero pool strength59% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:29
No Vision 40%IVY 60%
The model gave 60% on IVY — the game was taken by No Vision in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyChira JUNIOR
LinaMo13ei
RubickjAMES
PudgeMax
53% · 24 games
Dark Seeremptiness
37% · 71 game
Jakirojmn-
48% · 142 games
ClockwerkQupe
Game 2prediction missed22:4
No Vision 43%IVY 57%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by No Vision in 19:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyChira JUNIOR
Broodmotheremptiness
Skywrath MagejAMES
Ember SpiritMo13ei
45% · 44 games
Shadow FiendMax
42% · 98 games
RubickQupe
29% · 24 games
Silencerjmn-
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 67%
Series resultNo Vision 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2