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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GLYPHwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 12 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 11 games
45%

GLYPH

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 841 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 572 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 424 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
472 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1147 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 689 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 621 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
Team Nemesis 56%GLYPH 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by GLYPH in 45:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
54% · 144 games53% · 292 games
Templar AssassinJaCkky
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMac
50% · 323 games45% · 318 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingJabz
53% · 169 games40% · 139 games
Brewmasterzeal
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
51% · 341 game52% · 129 games
Keeper of the LightJhocam
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQ
51% · 105 games52% · 204 games
PhoenixNARMAN
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct25:10
Team Nemesis 55%GLYPH 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
47% · 232 games52% · 287 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
54% · 65 games51% · 214 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMac
47% · 240 games53% · 82 games
Brewmasterzeal
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderQ
47% · 260 games49% · 309 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressJaunuel
50% · 144 games52% · 49 games
VenomancerNARMAN
Venomancer
Game 3prediction missed18:31
Team Nemesis 54%GLYPH 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by GLYPH in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer23savage
53% · 127 games50% · 102 games
KezJaCkky
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierMac
49% · 307 games45% · 66 games
Largozeal
Largo
Mars
MarsJabz
48% · 473 games53% · 278 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickQ
57% · 91 game49% · 307 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressJaunuel
50% · 166 games45% · 411 games
JakiroNARMAN
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 60%
Series resultGLYPH 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3