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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zorka Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Water Rune Enjoyers

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
b1kA · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 22 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
59%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Mary_y · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
21%
Visage
Visagesignature
BliNcc · 14 games
64%

Zorka Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
OneJey · 10 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
Miyaoo · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Arti_Shock · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
80%
Sven
Sven
dizzying · 5 games
80%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
80%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Arti_Shock · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
387 picks · 591 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
360 picks · 266 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
322 picks · 542 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
246 picks · 759 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
238 picks · 359 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
231 picks · 333 bans
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
214 picks · 409 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
210 picks · 735 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Zorka Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Zorka Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:43
Water Rune Enjoyers 41%Zorka Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 53:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPalantimos
55% · 59 games48% · 55 games
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Primal Beast
Enigma
EnigmaBliNcc
55% · 217 games47% · 60 games
Pudgedizzying
Pudge
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerStojkov
67% · 42 games45% · 209 games
TinyMiyaoo
Tiny
Tusk
Tusky0nd
52% · 169 games51% · 119 games
UndyingOneJey
Undying
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMary_y
50% · 92 games39% · 136 games
RubickArti_Shock
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct23:40
Water Rune Enjoyers 39%Zorka Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendStojkov
51% · 56 games60% · 36 games
Lifestealerdizzying
Lifestealer
Pudge
PudgePalantimos
44% · 66 games54% · 58 games
TuskMiyaoo
Tusk
Visage
VisageBliNcc
52% · 52 games51% · 182 games
Marciklassnokruto
Marci
Primal Beast
Primal Beasty0nd
45% · 66 games50% · 4 games
GyrocopterArti_Shock
Gyrocopter
Lich
LichMary_y
44% · 53 games41% · 13 games
Vengeful SpiritOneJey
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct21:60
Water Rune Enjoyers 40%Zorka Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracStojkov
52% · 107 games59% · 79 games
Pudgedizzying
Pudge
Morphling
MorphlingPalantimos
46% · 138 games54% · 83 games
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsBliNcc
50% · 252 games49% · 428 games
TinyMiyaoo
Tiny
Tusk
Tusky0nd
58% · 154 games43% · 81 game
GyrocopterArti_Shock
Gyrocopter
Rubick
RubickMary_y
38% · 127 games47% · 107 games
Skywrath MageOneJey
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteZorka Gaming · 69%
Series resultZorka Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3