Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WKWitch Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ancient Tribe
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 7 games
Tiny
Limmp · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
Dragon Knight
s4 · 6 games
Clockwerk
Handsken · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Peksu · 5 games
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 5 games
Witch Kings
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Nyx Assassin
Jeezy · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
390 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
361 picks · 269 bans
Undying
322 picks · 538 bans
Enigma
246 picks · 757 bans
Death Prophet
239 picks · 359 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 333 bans
Batrider
214 picks · 735 bans
Primal Beast
213 picks · 406 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:28
Ancient Tribe 54%Witch Kings 46%
The model gave 54% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 56:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightStoneBank
Drow RangerCoblackk
LeshracMirage
VisageMr. Luck
BeastmasterDavai
Nyx AssassinJeezy
MiranaLeBronDota
TinyAlexxo
Game 2prediction correct17:5
Ancient Tribe 55%Witch Kings 45%
The model gave 55% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 13:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMirage
VenomancerMr. Luck
UrsaStoneBank
Drow RangerCoblackk
BroodmotherDavai
Nyx AssassinJeezy
MiranaLeBronDota
TuskAlexxo
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 58%
Series resultAncient Tribe 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2