Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
YNTwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
Leshracoften banned
chambi · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
chambi · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Koma` · 1 game
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Limitless · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Limitless · 1 game
Nyx Assassin
[T]SA · 1 game
YNT
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
Disruptor
dSa · 1 game
Grimstroke
jesv · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Malr1ne · 1 game
Lich
dSa · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
jesv · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
390 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
361 picks · 269 bans
Undying
322 picks · 538 bans
Enigma
246 picks · 757 bans
Death Prophet
239 picks · 359 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 333 bans
Batrider
214 picks · 735 bans
Primal Beast
213 picks · 406 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 51%
Hero pool strength57% MooN team
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:35
MooN team 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 49:56.
Game 2prediction missed21:29
MooN team 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on MooN team — the game was taken by YNT in 24:47.
Game 3prediction missed17:25
MooN team 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on MooN team — the game was taken by YNT in 20:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 53%
Series resultYNT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3