?
arrow_backBack to match
Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MooN teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 16 games
69%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 14 games
50%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 12 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Lowskill · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Max · 10 games
40%

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
391 picks · 590 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
364 picks · 275 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 535 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
246 picks · 759 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
243 picks · 364 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
234 picks · 336 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
217 picks · 741 bans
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
213 picks · 403 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:13
IVY 45%MooN team 55%
The model gave 55% on MooN team — the game was taken by IVY in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMax
47% · 31 game54% · 42 games
SlardarKoma`
Slardar
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
50% · 207 games52% · 140 games
EnigmaLimitless
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaQupe
52% · 80 games43% · 127 games
Batriderchambi
Batrider
Clockwerk
Clockwerkjmn-
43% · 114 games59% · 123 games
Undying[T]SA
Undying
Game 2prediction correct4:28
IVY 47%MooN team 53%
The model gave 53% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 26:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMo13ei
50% · 98 games49% · 39 games
SvenKoma`
Sven
Pudge
PudgeMax
57% · 65 games47% · 115 games
Leshracchambi
Leshrac
Chen
Chenjmn-
51% · 79 games50% · 202 games
BeastmasterLimitless
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyQupe
52% · 207 games44% · 93 games
Earthshaker[T]SA
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction missed48:32
IVY 43%MooN team 57%
The model gave 57% on MooN team — the game was taken by IVY in 59:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMax
43% · 58 games52% · 128 games
Leshracchambi
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
48% · 132 games47% · 109 games
Chaos KnightKoma`
Chaos Knight
Marci
Marcijmn-
53% · 124 games58% · 64 games
LycanLimitless
Lycan
Mirana
MiranaQupe
52% · 101 game46% · 114 games
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 59%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3