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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 35 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 22 games
64%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Visage
Visagesignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 14 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
75%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 31 game
39%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 18 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 17 games
47%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 333 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
445 picks · 642 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
319 picks · 532 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
268 picks · 428 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
262 picks · 816 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
257 picks · 357 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
246 picks · 572 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
242 picks · 121 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:29
Team Aster 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMonet
54% · 21 game53% · 75 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Leshrac
LeshracOri
46% · 90 games51% · 69 games
BloodseekerMATUMBAMAN
Bloodseeker
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
56% · 37 games42% · 35 games
Broodmotherzai
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
51% · 54 games52% · 97 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFantasy
53% · 97 games36% · 23 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Game 2prediction correct33:10
Team Aster 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMonet
48% · 31 game42% · 93 games
MorphlingMATUMBAMAN
Morphling
Pudge
PudgeOri
51% · 58 games56% · 56 games
Storm SpiritmiCKe
Storm Spirit
Marci
MarciXxs
50% · 181 game44% · 62 games
Leshraczai
Leshrac
Jakiro
JakiroBoBoKa
47% · 76 games51% · 89 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Omniknight
OmniknightFantasy
60% · 35 games56% · 81 game
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct10:29
Team Aster 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
41% · 61 game46% · 85 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
56% · 170 games49% · 36 games
Night StalkerMATUMBAMAN
Night Stalker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastOri
48% · 83 games43% · 122 games
Pangolierzai
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenBoBoKa
60% · 57 games52% · 112 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFantasy
47% · 59 games56% · 75 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3