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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 28 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
57%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 18 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
79%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 30 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 18 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 17 games
47%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 376 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
477 picks · 688 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
316 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 468 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
276 picks · 649 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
269 picks · 860 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
267 picks · 375 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
265 picks · 374 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:37
Thunder Awaken 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 57:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerPakazs
52% · 133 games53% · 126 games
LeshracmiCKe
Leshrac
Mars
MarsDarkMago
52% · 416 games53% · 92 games
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmaSacred
57% · 137 games48% · 301 game
Pangolierzai
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickMatthew
49% · 157 games47% · 368 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
42% · 76 games45% · 32 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Game 2prediction correct21:36
Thunder Awaken 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPakazs
48% · 73 games45% · 278 games
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterSacred
50% · 100 games60% · 94 games
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
48% · 218 games44% · 51 game
Broodmotherzai
Broodmother
Marci
MarciMatthew
48% · 192 games53% · 122 games
EnigmaiNSaNiA
Enigma
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
50% · 100 games52% · 138 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct48:41
Thunder Awaken 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgePakazs
45% · 64 games48% · 291 game
PangoliermiCKe
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
43% · 250 games48% · 121 game
Leshraczai
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaSacred
54% · 102 games54% · 76 games
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
Lifestealer
Undying
UndyingPanda
50% · 134 games48% · 147 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Marci
MarciMatthew
54% · 193 games56% · 108 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3