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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 36 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 23 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
63%
Visage
Visagesignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ori · 13 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
83%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 12 games
83%
Chen
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 375 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
477 picks · 688 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
316 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 468 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
276 picks · 648 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
268 picks · 860 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
266 picks · 374 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
265 picks · 374 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 68%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total72% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:31
Team Aster 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaOri
56% · 92 games50% · 12 games
RikiAme
Riki
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
55% · 31 game49% · 276 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
48% · 207 games53% · 66 games
VisageFaith_bian
Visage
Mirana
MiranaBoBoKa
49% · 128 games50% · 52 games
Primal BeastXinQ
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFantasy
48% · 71 game46% · 123 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed28:14
Team Aster 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMonet
50% · 105 games48% · 173 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Lina
LinaOri
48% · 227 games46% · 232 games
KunkkaNothingToSay
Kunkka
Mars
MarsXxs
49% · 531 game58% · 125 games
EnigmaFaith_bian
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaBoBoKa
54% · 246 games54% · 334 games
TinyXinQ
Tiny
Sven
SvenFantasy
47% · 63 games46% · 308 games
Snapfirey`
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 72%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2