The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 9 games
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
526 picks · 393 bans
Marci
478 picks · 708 bans
Undying
312 picks · 522 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 471 bans
Puck
288 picks · 671 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 387 bans
Enigma
271 picks · 864 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
Evil Geniuses 57%beastcoast 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 36:55.
Game 2prediction missed20:22
Evil Geniuses 57%beastcoast 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 41:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 57%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2