The International 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Entitywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
530 picks · 398 bans
Marci
483 picks · 715 bans
Undying
312 picks · 520 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 473 bans
Puck
290 picks · 683 bans
Dawnbreaker
285 picks · 388 bans
Enigma
271 picks · 867 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:29
Royal Never Give Up 42%Entity 58%
The model gave 58% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 1:47:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 58%
Series resultEntity 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1