The International 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Gaimin Gladiators
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 20 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 20 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 17 games
Tiny
BOOM · 17 games
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
Marcisignature
tOfu · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
530 picks · 398 bans
Marci
483 picks · 714 bans
Undying
311 picks · 520 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 473 bans
Puck
290 picks · 683 bans
Dawnbreaker
285 picks · 388 bans
Enigma
271 picks · 866 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
Fnatic 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 50:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 50%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1