The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 9 games
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 26 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Ogre Magi
Panda · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
526 picks · 397 bans
Marci
480 picks · 712 bans
Undying
311 picks · 516 bans
Death Prophet
306 picks · 473 bans
Puck
290 picks · 682 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 386 bans
Enigma
269 picks · 862 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 32%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
Evil Geniuses 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 47:15.
Game 2prediction missed11:35
Evil Geniuses 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2