The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Tiny
bryle- · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 11 games
Chenoften banned
DuBu · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
534 picks · 403 bans
Marci
478 picks · 722 bans
Undying
307 picks · 515 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 479 bans
Puck
295 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 397 bans
Enigma
271 picks · 860 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
Fnatic 45%TSM 55%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 40:49.
Game 2prediction correct20:31
Fnatic 45%TSM 55%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 36:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 55%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2