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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 35 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 25 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 21 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
72%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 42 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 38 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 38 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 28 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 840 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 572 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 424 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
472 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1143 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 686 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 619 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Natus Vincere 61%HULIGANI 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
55% · 170 games50% · 51 game
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Underlord
Underlordpma
45% · 159 games43% · 321 game
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingNiku
54% · 168 games49% · 174 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Venomancer
VenomancerRiddys
52% · 51 game45% · 107 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
53% · 365 games52% · 260 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed11:34
Natus Vincere 60%HULIGANI 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertagotthejuice
49% · 169 games53% · 81 game
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Sand King
Sand Kingpma
48% · 177 games45% · 203 games
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
55% · 340 games44% · 173 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Rubick
RubickDaze
54% · 66 games45% · 178 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRiddys
59% · 89 games51% · 206 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct23:9
Natus Vincere 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
46% · 66 games48% · 94 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerpma
43% · 90 games55% · 206 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Kez
KezNiku
46% · 78 games53% · 93 games
ViperMirage
Viper
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
48% · 154 games59% · 72 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Tusk
TuskDaze
49% · 334 games52% · 257 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3