The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 26 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Ogre Magi
Panda · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 13 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
532 picks · 401 bans
Marci
473 picks · 721 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 478 bans
Undying
304 picks · 514 bans
Puck
294 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 396 bans
Enigma
270 picks · 855 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total54% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:38
Thunder Awaken 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by beastcoast in 44:22.
Game 2prediction correct66:33
Thunder Awaken 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 53:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2