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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 33 games
61%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 22 games
45%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
531 picks · 399 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
470 picks · 718 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
305 picks · 476 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
302 picks · 510 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
294 picks · 696 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 396 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
267 picks · 852 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
261 picks · 361 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
Evil Geniuses 66%BOOM Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:55.
Game 2prediction missed22:45
Evil Geniuses 66%BOOM Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 56:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 66%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2