The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Gaimin Gladiators
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 20 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 20 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 18 games
Tiny
BOOM · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
Marcisignature
tOfu · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
531 picks · 399 bans
Marci
470 picks · 718 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 476 bans
Undying
302 picks · 510 bans
Puck
294 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 396 bans
Enigma
267 picks · 852 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Soniqs 41%Gaimin Gladiators 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:07.
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Soniqs 41%Gaimin Gladiators 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 59%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2