The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 395 bans
Marci
466 picks · 711 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Undying
299 picks · 505 bans
Puck
291 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 394 bans
Enigma
263 picks · 847 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 881 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:32
Team Spirit 56%beastcoast 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by beastcoast in 43:26.
Game 2prediction correct29:24
Team Spirit 56%beastcoast 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2