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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
79%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Panda · 12 games
58%

TSM

Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 14 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
77%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chenoften banned
DuBu · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 395 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
466 picks · 711 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
299 picks · 505 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
291 picks · 696 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 394 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
263 picks · 847 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 881 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 28%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:22
Thunder Awaken 54%TSM 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgePakazs
61% · 51 game53% · 291 game
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
49% · 350 games50% · 105 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireSacred
43% · 271 game56% · 54 games
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
49% · 137 games56% · 181 game
MiranaMoonMeander
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
42% · 92 games47% · 270 games
ClockwerkDuBu
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed23:36
Thunder Awaken 54%TSM 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by TSM in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
42% · 69 games45% · 71 game
Shadow Fiendbryle-
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
51% · 113 games52% · 235 games
MarciTimado
Marci
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSacred
48% · 142 games62% · 44 games
VenomancerSabeRLight-
Venomancer
Lich
LichPanda
45% · 55 games54% · 67 games
EarthshakerMoonMeander
Earthshaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
57% · 100 games44% · 62 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2