The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
Visagesignature
33 · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 18 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 395 bans
Marci
466 picks · 711 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Undying
299 picks · 505 bans
Puck
291 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 394 bans
Enigma
263 picks · 847 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 881 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 27%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
Fnatic 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:48.
Game 2prediction correct25:15
Fnatic 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2