The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 33 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 22 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Visagesignature
Xxs · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 15 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
Enigmasignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
Marcisignature
Zayac · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 395 bans
Marci
466 picks · 711 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Undying
299 picks · 505 bans
Puck
291 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 394 bans
Enigma
263 picks · 847 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 881 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:26
Team Aster 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMonet
LeshracNisha
Ember SpiritOri
Monkey KingCrystallis
EnigmaXxs
MagnusResolut1on
SnapfireFantasy
SilencerPuppey
TinyBoBoKa
TuskZayac
Game 2prediction missed19:36
Team Aster 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMonet
BloodseekerCrystallis
VisageXxs
LeshracResolut1on
PuckOri
KunkkaNisha
TinyBoBoKa
TuskZayac
Crystal MaidenFantasy
DisruptorPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2