The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 30 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 15 games
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 33 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 14 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 399 bans
Marci
465 picks · 717 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Undying
297 picks · 505 bans
Puck
292 picks · 702 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 396 bans
Enigma
262 picks · 848 bans
Snapfire
258 picks · 135 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Team Liquid 58%BOOM Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMATUMBAMAN
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
PangoliermiCKe
UnderlordFbz
Beastmasterzai
TinyYopaj
MarciBoxi
SnapfireTims
DisruptoriNSaNiA
UndyingSkem
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Team Liquid 60%BOOM Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
LifestealerJaCkky
InvokermiCKe
LinaYopaj
Enigmazai
TidehunterFbz
UndyingiNSaNiA
TinyTims
Nyx AssassinBoxi
SilencerSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2