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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 9 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 8 games
50%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 398 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
463 picks · 713 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
296 picks · 500 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 701 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 397 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
262 picks · 842 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
258 picks · 136 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Evil Geniuses 56%Royal Never Give Up 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 25:05.
Game 2prediction missed28:21
Evil Geniuses 56%Royal Never Give Up 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 32:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 56%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2