The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 20 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 12 games
Enigmaoften banned
Resolut1on · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
523 picks · 398 bans
Marci
462 picks · 712 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Undying
296 picks · 499 bans
Puck
290 picks · 701 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 397 bans
Enigma
260 picks · 842 bans
Snapfire
258 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total51% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
Team Secret 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 32:29.
Game 2prediction missed22:4
Team Secret 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2