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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
73%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
Ori · 11 games
73%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 21 game
62%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 19 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
79%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 400 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
461 picks · 710 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
306 picks · 471 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
295 picks · 495 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 701 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 395 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
260 picks · 839 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
257 picks · 136 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:33
Team Aster 57%Thunder Awaken 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 23:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMonet
47% · 118 games46% · 114 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOri
48% · 68 games48% · 418 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Visage
VisageXxs
54% · 118 games55% · 32 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciBoBoKa
53% · 265 games43% · 83 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
50% · 210 games56% · 132 games
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Team Aster 58%Thunder Awaken 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMonet
47% · 72 games46% · 115 games
PudgePakazs
Pudge
Tiny
TinyOri
52% · 269 games56% · 296 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Visage
VisageXxs
50% · 86 games47% · 73 games
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireBoBoKa
44% · 216 games44% · 46 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Omniknight
OmniknightFantasy
42% · 31 game63% · 144 games
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2