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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 19 games
79%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 11 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 32 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 23 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 19 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 399 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
459 picks · 706 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
305 picks · 469 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
291 picks · 492 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 702 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 395 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
259 picks · 833 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
256 picks · 134 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 43%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:6
LGD Gaming 68%BOOM Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
60% · 36 games42% · 106 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
52% · 108 games50% · 90 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
64% · 50 games44% · 201 game
MarsFbz
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
49% · 67 games44% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Ancient Apparition
Io
Ioy`
53% · 239 games46% · 79 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct28:13
LGD Gaming 69%BOOM Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
48% · 100 games49% · 158 games
Templar AssassinJaCkky
Templar Assassin
Broodmother
BroodmotherFaith_bian
44% · 49 games48% · 204 games
Death ProphetFbz
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
51% · 314 games49% · 322 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Marci
MarciXinQ
55% · 351 game49% · 127 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Disruptor
Disruptory`
51% · 144 games53% · 147 games
UndyingSkem
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 83%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2