The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 19 games
Tiny
Q · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
518 picks · 399 bans
Marci
457 picks · 703 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 470 bans
Puck
288 picks · 700 bans
Undying
288 picks · 490 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 397 bans
Enigma
256 picks · 833 bans
Snapfire
255 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:18
beastcoast 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:08.
Game 2prediction missed37:21
beastcoast 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:56.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 54%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2